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The basic math
A bonus changes the number of partner points received, not the quality of the partner program. Calculate how many bank points the exact award requires during the promotion, then compare the total cash cost.
Availability comes first
Find the award and confirm dates, cabin, traveler count, taxes, and change rules before moving points. A transfer bonus attached to no usable award is worth nothing.
Why speculative transfers are risky
Partner programs can change award pricing, availability, and rules. Once transferred, points typically cannot return to the bank program. Flexibility has value.
The sensible exception
A speculative transfer can be reasonable only when you know the program extremely well, use it frequently, and accept the risk. It is not a beginner move.